Woody species diversity in temperate Andean forests: The need for new conservation strategies

Chile has more than half of the temperate forests in the southern hemisphere. These have been included among the most threatened eco-regions in the world, because of the high degree of endemism and presence of monotypic genera. In this study, we develop empirical models to investigate present and future spatial patterns of woody species richness in temperate forests in south-central Chile. Our aims are both to increase understanding of species richness patterns in such forests and to develop recommendations for forest conservation strategies. Our data were obtained at multiple spatial scales, including field sampling, climate, elevation and topography data, and land-cover and spectrally derived variables from satellite sensor imagery. Climatic and land-cover variables most effectively accounted for tree species richness variability, while only weak relationships were found between explanatory variables and shrub species richness. The best models were used to obtain prediction maps of tree species richness for 2050, using data from the Hadley Centre’s HadCM3 model. Current protected areas are located far from the areas of highest tree conservation value and our models suggest this trend will continue. We therefore suggest that current conservation strategies are insufficient, a trend likely to be repeated across many other areas. We propose the current network of protected areas should be increased, prioritizing sites of both current and future importance to increase the effectiveness of the national protected areas system. In this way, target sites for conservation can also be chosen to bring other benefits, such as improved water supply to